Western Blue Chip Current Update

October 30, 2026

Seidman has produced Western consensus forecasts since 1986, using a method inspired by Robert J. Eggert of Sedona, Arizona. The states included in the Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast are Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Texas, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.

 

WESTERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

 

Regional Narrative

The October 2026 consensus forecasts point to a broader Western expansion in 2027. All economic figures for 2026 and 2027 in this brief report are forecasts of annual percentage changes, rather than observed results. Personal income growth is projected to accelerate in all 12 states, employment growth generally strengthens in the forecasts, and single-family housing permits are expected to increase everywhere except California. Retail sales are expected to be more restrained, with growth slowing in most reporting states. The outlook suggests improving momentum, although the projected gains remain uneven across the region.

Stronger income growth is forecast. Projected personal income growth in 2026 ranges from 3.4% in Washington to 4.9% in Arizona and Texas. Idaho has the highest 2027 forecast at 6.5%, followed by Utah at 6.1% and Washington at 6.0%. These are current-dollar projections. The Bureau of Economic Analysis distinguishes personal income from wages alone: the measure includes earnings, property income and transfer receipts. Inflation and population growth must also be considered before interpreting the forecasts as gains in individual purchasing power. [1]

Hiring is expected to improve unevenly. Montana and Oregon are forecast to move from employment declines in 2026 to growth in 2027, while Colorado is expected to improve from a near standstill. Utah has the strongest projected acceleration, from 1.2% to approximately 3.0%, although its two panelists differ substantially. Nevada is forecast to retain relatively strong job growth despite a modest slowdown. Payroll jobs, unemployment and labor-force participation are distinct measures within the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ framework. These forecasts alone do not establish whether labor shortages or unemployment will ease. [2]

Retail sales forecasts remain measured. At one decimal place, projected retail sales growth slows in seven of the nine states reporting the measure, strengthens in Arizona, and holds steady in California. Stronger forecast income growth therefore does not imply a comparable acceleration in retail spending. Nevada, New Mexico and Oregon are excluded from retail comparisons because their state sheets instead report forecasts for gaming revenue or manufacturing employment.

A housing recovery is forecast. Single-family permits are forecast to return to growth across much of the region in 2027. Nevada has the sharpest projected reversal, from a 17.4% decline to a 7.8% gain, but that recovery would still leave activity below its 2025 level. The Census Bureau defines permits as construction authorizations, rather than completed homes. The Federal Reserve identifies borrowing costs as a channel through which monetary policy affects spending and investment, making financing conditions an important consideration when assessing the housing outlook. [3, 4]

Population forecasts shape the demand outlook. Idaho, Nevada, Arizona and Utah have comparatively strong population growth forecasts. Those projections suggest continued demand for housing and local services, although demand also depends on residents’ incomes and household formation. California and several slower-growing states are expected to receive a more limited demographic contribution to expansion.

State Snapshot

All figures below are forecasts of annual percentage changes for 2026 and 2027. References to growth, declines and recoveries describe projected outcomes.

Arizona — Steady expansion with a housing recovery forecast. Income growth is forecast to rise from 4.9% in 2026 to 5.4% in 2027, hiring to improve to 1.1%, and permits to return to growth. Retail sales growth is also expected to strengthen.

California — Stronger income growth with housing still subdued. Income growth is forecast at 4.9% in 2027, with employment growth of 0.8% and population growth of 0.1%. Retail sales growth is projected near 4.4%, while permits are expected to decline.

Colorado — A gradual pickup is forecast. Employment growth is projected to edge up from 0.2% to 0.5%, and permits are expected to return to expansion. Income and population growth are forecast to strengthen modestly as retail sales growth eases.

Idaho — Leading income and population growth forecasts. The 2027 forecasts show regional highs for income growth at 6.5% and population growth at 1.5%. Permits are projected to rise 5.5%, with stronger employment growth and moderating retail sales growth.

Montana — A hiring recovery is expected. Employment is forecast to shift from a 1.0% decline to 0.5% growth, while income growth accelerates from 3.5% to 5.8%. Housing permits are projected to expand 5.0% in both years.

Nevada — Housing is forecast to rebound. Permits are projected to swing from a 17.4% fall to 7.8% growth. Employment growth is forecast at 1.8% in 2027, while income growth is expected to accelerate despite slightly slower population gains.

New Mexico — Stronger momentum is forecast. Income growth is projected at 5.4% and employment growth at 1.3% in 2027. Permits are expected to return to growth, population to expand 0.3%, and manufacturing employment to stabilize after a projected 0.8% decline.

Oregon — A tentative recovery is forecast. Employment is projected to move from a 0.5% decline to a 0.5% gain, and income growth to reach 5.5%. Permits are expected to recover, while manufacturing employment continues to contract in the forecasts.

Texas — A modest acceleration is expected. Income and employment growth are forecast to strengthen slightly in 2027, and permits to rise 3.1% after broadly flat activity in 2026. Population growth is projected near 0.9%, while retail sales growth eases.

Utah — Stronger hiring is forecast with panelists divided. Employment growth is projected near 3.0% in 2027, averaging forecasts of 1.5% and 4.4%. Income growth is forecast at 6.1%, permits are expected to recover and retail sales are projected to grow 5.0%.

Washington — Stronger income growth with slower retail gains forecast. Income growth is projected to accelerate from 3.4% to 6.0%, alongside stronger employment and population gains. Permits are expected to return to growth, while retail sales growth slows from 6.0% to 4.0%.

Wyoming — Modest growth with a housing recovery forecast. Income growth is projected to strengthen to 4.8% in 2027, while retail sales growth eases to 3.8%. Employment and population gains are expected to remain modest, with permits rebounding 2.5% after a projected 10.0% decline.

 

Sources and Methodology

Primary Forecast: Seidman Research Institute, WBC Q4 2026 Consensus Results Sheet.xlsx, October 2026. Forecasts are based on the consensus and individual panelist submissions. State consensus formulas generally take the arithmetic mean of available numeric submissions, excluding blank cells. Coverage varies by state, year and indicator. Idaho, Montana, Oregon and Washington each have one populated contributor for both forecast years. Their forecasts therefore reflect a single contributor.

Forecast Interpretation: All figures for 2026 and 2027 are forecasts, including references to declines, growth and recoveries. Figures follow the forecast tables’ rounding conventions. Small changes can disappear at one-decimal precision. Utah’s 2027 employment forecast averages 2.95% before display rounding, based on panelist forecasts of 1.5% and 4.4%. Comparative growth rates do not measure states’ contributions to total regional growth.

References:

  1. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Income and saving. Conceptual background on personal income and its components.
  2. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. State and Metro Area Employment Hours and Earnings. Framework for interpreting payroll employment.
  3. U.S. Census Bureau. Building Permits Survey. Definitions and scope of residential building permits.
  4. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Monetary policy goals and transmission. Background on interest rates, spending and investment.

Reference note: The external sources provide conceptual background. Their current contents and October 2026 commentary have not been independently verified. They do not constitute endorsements of the Western Blue Chip consensus forecasts.