Western Blue Chip Current Update
July 23, 2024
The states included in the Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast are Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Texas, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.
MIDYEAR JOB GROWTH UPDATE: 2024
National employment grew by 1.8% in the first half of 2024, as the economy added 2.8 million nonfarm payroll jobs. At midyear 2024, the pace of job creation has slowed from the 2.3% employment growth recorded in all of 2023 as tighter federal reserve monetary policy remains in force. First half employment is measured as average monthly employment from January – June. Employment growth figures are from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Job Growth USA on this website.
Among the states, Nevada posted the fastest growth rate (3.6%), followed by Alaska (3.4%) and South Carolina (3.3%) (Table 1). Nevada’s rate of job growth in the first half was twice as fast as the nation’s.
Table 1: Employment Growth in 2024 First Half
| Rank | State | Percent Change | Rank | State | Percent Change</td |
| 1 | Nevada | 3.6% | 1 | Texas | 287,800 |
| 2 | Alaska | 3.4% | 2 | Florida | 215,420 |
| 3 | South Carolina | 3.3% | 3 | California | 204,450 |
| 4 | Idaho | 2.9% | 4 | New York | 146,900 |
| 5 | Missouri | 2.4% | 5 | Pennsylvania | 79,300 |
| 6(t) | Florida | 2.2% | 6 | South Carolina | 75,200 |
| 6(t) | Montana | 2.2% | 7 | Virginia | 74,220 |
| 6(t) | Arizona | 2.2% | 8 | Missouri | 71,310 |
| 9(t) | Utah | 2.1% | 9 | North Carolina | 71,000 |
| 9(t) | Texas | 2.1% | 10 | Arizona | 68,500 |
| United States | 1.8% | United States | 2.8 million |
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Job Growth USA, Arizona State University
Six of the top 10 fastest growing states were from the West. Other than Nevada, strong Western employment gains were recorded in Idaho (2.9%); Montana and Arizona (tied at 2.2%); and Utah and Texas (tied at 2.1%).
While 14 states recorded percentage gains in employment greater than the national rate of 1.8%, the remaining 36 states all grew less than the national average, with 12 states recording increases smaller than 1.0% in the first half. Oregon was the only state to lose jobs in the period.
Texas added the greatest number of new jobs (287,800) in the first half, followed by Florida (215,420) and California (450,000). Texas and Arizona were the only states to rank among the top 10 for fastest growth rate and top 10 absolute number of new jobs added.
SWING STATE EMPLOYMENT IN THE FIRST HALF
As political campaigns move into high gear for the November elections, analysts project that a small number of swing states could play a critical role in electoral outcomes. Economic conditions, and especially job growth in these states, will likely be an important topic for voters and candidates.
Among potential swing states, only Nevada and Arizona had stronger job growth than the national average in the first half (Table 2). Both states ranked among the top 10 for percent growth. Two states (Wisconsin and Michigan) recorded job growth less than 1.0% for the period and ranked in the lowest quintile among all 50 states. However, the swing states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona were among the top 10 states adding the most new jobs in the first half (see Table 1).
Table 2: Employment Swing State Employment Growth in 2024 First Half
| Rank | State | Percent Change |
| 1 | Nevada | 3.6% |
| 8 | Arizona | 2.2% |
| 23 | North Carolina | 1.4% |
| 30 | Pennsylvania | 1.3% |
| 33 | Georgia | 1.3% |
| 40 | Wisconsin | 0.9% |
| 42 | Michigan | 0.8% |
| United States | 1.8% |
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics andJob Growth USA, Arizona State University
SPOTLIGHT ON TEXAS
“The Texas economy continues to show strength even as the recovery matures. The state economy faces headwinds from inflation and higher interest rates, but continues to lead the nation in new locations and other indicia of growth.”
Ray Perryman, President and CEO, The Perryman Group