Western Blue Chip Current Update
January 17, 2025
The states included in the Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast are Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Texas, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.
POPULATION GROWTH RATES INCREASED IN MOST WESTERN STATES IN 2024
The U.S. population grew by 3.3 million residents in 2024, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The release of Vintage 2024 data was based on population estimates for the 12-month period ending in July 2024. At the national level, the annual percentage rate of growth increased from 0.8% in 2023 to 1.0% in 2024, and the absolute numeric increase of 3.3 million was some 500,000 greater than 2023 (Table 1). Population growth rates increased in nine of the twelve Western states, driven largely by increases in international migration in 2024
Table 1: Population Change in Western States
| State | Annual % Change | Annual Numeric Change in Population | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | Difference | |
| Arizona | 1.3% | 1.5% | 95,461 | 109,357 | 13,896 |
| California | 0.1% | 0.6% | 56,279 | 232,570 | 176,291 |
| Colorado | 0.9% | 1.0% | 50,404 | 56,154 | 5,750 |
| Idaho | 1.4% | 1.5% | 26,823 | 30,497 | 3,674 |
| Montana | 0.8% | 0.5% | 9,207 | 5,931 | -3,276 |
| Nevada | 1.2% | 1.7% | 38,247 | 53,104 | 14,857 |
| New Mexico | 0.3% | 0.4% | 7,296 | 9,092 | 1,796 |
| Oregon | 0.1% | 0.4% | 6,281 | 18,718 | 12,437 |
| Texas | 2.0% | 1.8% | 614,402 | 562,941 | -51,461 |
| Utah | 1.5% | 1.8% | 52,211 | 60,391 | 8,180 |
| Washington | 0.8% | 1.3% | 63,197 | 100,860 | 37,663 |
| Wyoming | 0.5% | 0.4% | 3,089 | 2,551 | -538 |
| United States | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2,788,910 | 3,304,757 | 515,847 |
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, December 2024
The largest population gains were recorded by Texas (562,941) and California (232,570), although the 2024 increase in Texas was smaller (by 51,461) than in 2023 and the California increase was larger (by 176,291). The annual percentage change in Texas population (1.8%) was down in 2024, but the Lone Star State still tied with Utah (1.8%) for the fastest rate of growth. Western states with population growth rates exceeding the national pace included Nevada (1.7%), Arizona and Idaho (1.5%), and Washington (1.3%). Nationally, Florida posted the fastest pace of population growth (2.0 %) among the 50 states for the third consecutive year.
GROWTH COMPONENTS
The components of state population changes include natural increase (births minus deaths), net domestic migration, and net international migration. State-to-state domestic migration does not change national population, but the reduction in movement of 824,332 persons affected state growth in 2024. Estimated domestic migration was modestly smaller in 2024 compared to 2023 in 6 of the 12 Western states, although Texas saw a decline in the number of domestic newcomers of 105,727. Domestic migration continued negative in California, with a loss of 239,575, but that figure represented an actual reduction in outflow by 104,454 (Table 2).
Table 2: Net Domestic Migration in Western States
| State | Annual Net Domestic Migration | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2024 | Difference | |
| Arizona | 35,2086 | 34,902 | -306 |
| California | -344,029 | -239,575 | 104,454 |
| Colorado | 6,341 | 5,422 | -919 |
| Idaho | 14,730 | 16,383 | 1,653 |
| Montana | 9,110 | 5,410 | -3,700 |
| Nevada | 8,174 | 16,853 | 8,679 |
| New Mexico | -1,487 | -1,571 | -84 |
| Oregon | -8,014 | -1,162 | 6,852 |
| Texas | 190,994 | 85,267 | -105,727 |
| Utah | 493 | 3,220 | 2,727 |
| Washington | -17,293 | 2,671 | 19,964 |
| Wyoming | 1,741 | 8612 | -880 |
| United States | 2,307,514 | 1,483,182 | -834,332 |
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, December 2024
Net international migration to the U.S. was estimated at 2,786,119 for 2024, up by nearly a half million (Table 3). Estimated net international migration to the Western states was 971,441, accounting for slightly more than one third of the national total. California received 361,057 international migrants and Texas had 319,569 as international migration to these two states made up nearly one quarter (24.4%) of the U.S. total. Net international migration in 2024 to Western states was larger than domestic migration in every state except Idaho and Montana.
Table 3: Net International Migration in Western States
| State | Annual Net International Migration | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2024 | Difference | |
| Arizona | 52,767 | 64,486 | 11,719 |
| California | 292,721 | 361,057 | 68,336 |
| Colorado | 27,177 | 33,227 | 6,050 |
| Idaho | 6,419 | 7,899 | 1,480 |
| Montana | 371 | 506 | 135 |
| Nevada | 27,009 | 33,005 | 5,996 |
| New Mexico | 9,904 | 12,103 | 2,199 |
| Oregon | 19,246 | 23,590 | 4,344 |
| Texas | 262,618 | 319,569 | 56,951 |
| Utah | 27,421 | 33,133 | 5,712 |
| Washington | 67,068 | 81,581 | 14,513 |
| Wyoming | 1,037 | 1,285 | 248 |
| United States | 2,294,299 | 2,786,119 | 491,820 |
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, December 2024
The methodology of estimating net domestic migration relies on various sources, including IRS and Medicare data. Details on the methodology of population and population component estimation are available in the U.S. Census Bureau publication Methodology for the United States Population Estimates: Vintage 2024 (Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico – April 1-2020 to July 1, 2023).
SPOTLIGHT ON TEXAS
“Job growth has slowed to some extent of late, but the underlying short-term dynamics are generally strong. The state is an emerging leader in life sciences, crypto mining, AI, and nanotechnology, in addition to its established presence in all aspects of energy and electronics. Texas has many advantages (especially with regard to an expanding working-age population), but also faces challenges in terms of needed investments in education, electric power, water, and transportation infrastructure. The state is also vulnerable to substantial changes in tariff and immigration policies which have been proposed. Nonetheless, the near-term outlook is decidedly positive.”
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Ray Perryman, President and CEO, The Perryman Group