Western Blue Chip Current Update
July 18, 2025
The states included in the Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast are Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Texas, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.
UTAH, IDAHO & TEXAS LEAD U.S. IN RATE OF HOUSING UNIT CHANGE: 2020-2024
Despite headwinds from high mortgage rates, labor shortages, and building cost increases, the nation continued to add housing between 2020-2024, according to the latest cumulative estimates of housing unit change from the U. S. Census Bureau. The number of housing units increased by 6.3 million units and changed by 4.5% during the period. At the state level, Utah, Idaho and Texas added housing units at the fastest pace, ranking 1st, 2nd, and 3rd respectively among all 50 states (see table). Percent changes for Utah (11.5%) and Idaho (10.7%) were more than double the national growth rate.
Western States GDP and Employment Growth in 2024
| Percent Change | Rank | Percent Change | |
| Arizona | 2.7% | 22 | 1.3% |
| California | 3.6% | 10 | 0.7% |
| Colorado | 1.9% | 39 | 1.1% |
| Idaho | 3.9% | 3 | 1.7% |
| Montana | 2.0% | 38 | 1.2% |
| Nevada | 2.8% | 20 | 1.9% |
| New Mexico | 2.2% | 34 | 1.5% |
| Oregon | 1.2% | 42 | 0.3% |
| Texas | 3.6% | 9 | 1.5% |
| Utah | 4.5% | 1 | 1.3% |
| Washington | 3.7% | 7 | 1.2% |
| Wyoming | 0.8% | 46 | 1.0% |
| United States | 2.8% | 1.3% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, NST-EST2024-HU-CUMCHG, May 2025
Figures for U.S. Rank do not include District of Columbia
Other Western states in the top 10 included Colorado (8th) and Arizona (9th). Nevada (11th), Washington (12th), Montana (15th, and Oregon (16th) placed in the top 20, and all grew faster than the national average of 4.5%. The slowest housing change among the Western states was in California (3.4%), although the Golden State ranked 3rd in the absolute number of new units (485,763) behind Texas (1.0 million units) and Florida (764,559).
Arizona had placed among the top ten states for percentage gains in employment in every year from 2016 – 2023, and the Grand Canyon State was first-ranked in 2019. The recent revised employment growth for Arizona in 2024 placed the state at 16th, with gains at the national average of 1.3%.
Similarly, Texas ranked 10th in 2024 after ranking 2nd in 2022 (behind Nevada) and 3rd in 2023. Oregon slipped to 48th in the job growth rankings in 2024, down from 27th in 2023. Oregon and California were the slowest growing Western states in 2024. Their nonfarm employment increased by 0.3% and 0.7%, respectively.
SPOTLIGHT ON TEXAS
“There is substantial uncertainty in the outlook at present. Texas is the largest state in the nation in terms of global trade which, combined with highly integrated production processes with Mexico, makes the state highly vulnerable to tariffs. Approximately 9% of its workforce is undocumented, including large portions of the agricultural, construction, and hospitality sectors, which creates additional vulnerability to current potential policies. The underlying short-term parameters of the state are solid, but if current policy pronouncements are sustained for an extended period, they will have material negative effects and result in lower overall performance.”
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Ray Perryman, President and CEO, The Perryman Group
“The broad tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration could have serious negative effects on Texas because of the state’s strong ties to the global economy, especially Mexico and Canada. Texas’ oil and gas industry could also be restrained to the extent other countries levy reciprocal tariffs on U.S. energy exports.”
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Bud Weinstein, Emeritus Professor of Applied Economics, University of North Texas