Western Blue Chip Current Update

October 9, 2024

The states included in the Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast are Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Texas, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.

CALIFORNIA AND TEXAS RANK AMONG GLOBL GDP LEADERS

Denizens of California are known to (proudly) point out that, if measured as a separate country, their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would place the Golden State as fifth in a global GDP ranking.  According to the latest state GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the most recently available GDP data for nations from the World Bank, this statement continues to be accurate.

California GDP in 2023 was $3,870.4B (BEA, September 26, 2024).  Combined with the 2023 World Bank data (September 19, 2024), the top 10 GDP ranking positions include Texas as well:

Table 1: GDP Global Rankings for Nations and U.S. States – Top Ten 2023

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and World Bank

Gross Domestic Product is an indicator of the overall scale of economic activity.  GDP as a measure of total output does not take into account the population of a state (output per person) or productivity (output per worker).  Per capita GDP is often used as a measure of well-being, and varies widely around the globe.  For example, California and India are adjacent in the rankings.  India’s population is 1.4 billion, yielding a per capita GDP of $2,490. The population of California is 38.9 million (U.S. Census, 2023) so per capita GDP is $99,500, some 40 times greater.

Based on GDP for 187 nations, as compiled by the World Bank, and all 50 U.S. states, the next highest ranked state was New York at 12 with $2,272.0B GDP, very similar to Brazil in 11^th place with GDP of $2,173.7B.   The lowest ranked U.S. state among the 237 entries was Vermont at 146 with GDP of $43.5B.  Vermont is closest to 147. Bahrain with $43.2B for 2023.

After California and Texas, Washington is the next highest ranked Western state, in 30^th global position, based on GDP for the 187 nations and all 50 U.S. states.  Washington is adjacent to Poland at ranking position 29.  Global GDP rankings including the Western states and nations in closest adjacent rankings are shown below:

Table 2: GDP Global Rankings for Nations and Western States

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and World Bank

*Note: South Carolina was in 70th position with GDP of $327.4 Billion

SPOTLIGHT ON TEXAS

“The recent jobs numbers were skewed by the effects of Hurricane Beryl, but nonetheless illustrate that Texas retains significant momentum despite some slowing in key sectors.  Major investments in emerging sectors (such data centers/AI. blockchain, and life sciences) bode well for long-term growth, as does the diverse energy sector. Education and infrastructure pose longer-term risk to sustainable growth.”

Ray Perryman, President and CEO, The Perryman Group

“New residents and businesses continue to flock to Texas from California, the Midwest and the Northeast, a trend that started 30 years ago and shows no signs of abating. While the cost of living has risen in the state’s large metropolitan areas – in tandem with the rest of the country – lower personal and business taxes, along with reasonably priced and reliable electricity, have become key elements of Texas’ appeal as a place to live and work.”

Bud Weinstein, Emeritus Professor of Applied Economics, University of North Texas