Covid 19 and the Economy
Covid 19 Dashboard – Arizona
STATE MANDATES
Governor Doug Ducey issued two statewide Stay at Home Orders, encompassing the March 30 – May 15 time horizon. These were Arizona Executive Order No. 2020-18 (March 30, 2020) and Arizona Executive Order No. 2020-33 (April 29, 2020).
On March 25, 2021, Governor Ducey then announced that with the state reaching its own health benchmarks:
- Events of more than 50 people will no longer need approval of local governments. Events should follow safe practices and CDC recommendations.
- Business guidances will transition from requirements to recommendations.
- Restaurants can resume “normal operations.”
- Local mask mandates will be phased out.
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS
Initial, Continued, and Total Claims
Source: Arizona Department of Economic Security
Initial jobless claims measure emerging unemployment. Continuing claims refers to claims made by unemployed workers who have already filed a claim with the Arizona Department of Economic Security and continue to receive weekly benefits. They are not unique individuals.
Initial unemployment insurance claims peaked in Arizona in late March and April 2020. The highest number of initial claims were recorded for the week ending March 28, 2020 (132,428 applications). The number of weekly initial claims fell below 10,000 at the beginning of September 2020, and continued to fall until mid-November 2020. Initial claims increased again in January 2021, but fell to less than 3,000 a week in February. The latest number of initial claims (2,615 for the week ending August 14, 2021) is the lowest weekly number recorded since before 2020.
The highest number of weekly continued claims (232,497) was recorded for the week ending August 1, 2020. The number of weekly continuing claims was 35,381 for the week ending March 26, 2021.
PANDEMIC UNEMPLOYMENT ASSISTANCE CLAIMS
Initial, Continued, and Total Claims
Source: Arizona Department of Economic Security
Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) is a temporary emergency benefit for individuals who were historically ineligible for, or have exhausted their entitlement to unemployment insurance. It suggests that the week ending October 10, 2020 had the highest number of initial PUA claims (570,409). It also suggests that the week with the highest number of continuing claims was the week ending July 18, 2020 (2,768,800).
For the week ending August 14, 2021, there are 786 initial PUA claims in Arizona. Please note: there appear to be several discrepancies between the PUA data reported on the Arizona Department of Economic Security’s website and the state data disclosed by the U.S. Department of Labor.
Also for the week ending August 14, 2021, the total number of continuing claims is 48,713.
PUA is set to end nationwide on September 6.
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE AND PANDEMIC UNEMPLOYMENT ASSISTANCE PAYMENTS
Total Weekly Payments (Dollars)
Source: Arizona Department of Economic Security
The Arizona Department of Economic Security estimates that approximately $15.8 billion has been paid in UI and PUA benefit to date since the start of 2020.
COMPARISON OF MONTHLY UNEMPLOYMENT RATES IN CONTIGUOUS STATES
Seasonally Adjusted Percentage Rate
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised all monthly unemployment rates for 2020 on March 3, 2021.
Arizona’s highest monthly unemployment rate in 2020 occurred in April (14.2 percent), followed by June (10.6 percent). The preliminary estimate for Arizona for June 2021 is 6.8 percent.
Among the contiguous states, Nevada endured the highest monthly unemployment rates in summer 2020, followed by California. Please note: the June 2021 percentages are preliminary estimates. Utah currently has the lowest monthly unemployment rate (2.7 percent preliminary estimate for June 2021).
GOOGLE COMMUNITY MOBILITY DATA
Source: Google LLC “Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports”.
https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ Accessed: August 18, 2021
Google’s mobility reports show relative changes, rather than absolute visitors or duration. The chart shows how visitors to (or time spent in) three types of place change compared to the median value for the corresponding day of the week during the January 3 – February 6 2020 baseline.
Work trips were up to 45.7 percent lower than the January 3 – February 6 2020 baseline in April last year during the first wave of the virus. The unemployment rate peaked in the state in that month at 13.4 percent. During August 1-14, 2021, work trips were up to 27.4 percent lower than the baseline.
Retail and recreation trips were up to 41.6 percent lower than the January 3 – February 6 2020 baseline in April last year. During August 1-14, 2021, retail and recreation trips were up to 13.6 percent lower than the baseline.
Grocery and pharmacy store visits were up to 14.1 percent lower than the January 3 – February 6 2020 baseline in April last year. During August 1-14, 2021, grocery and pharmacy store visits were up to 6.6 percent lower than the baseline.
TOTAL WITHHOLDING INCOME TAX
Total withholding income taxes less refunds and adjustments is a good barometer of the pace of monthly incomes in Arizona. A comparison of the net totals for the March 2019 through December 2019 time horizon with March 2020 through December 2020 shows an increase of 4.2 percent. A comparison of both full calendar years shows a year-over-year increase of 5.3 percent.
| 2019 | 2020 | Percent Change | |
| March – December | $3,337,926,301 | $3,478,332,519 | +4.2% |
| January – December | $4,008,405,841 | $4,221,309,259 | +5.3% |
TAXABLE SALES
Comparisons of total business activities statewide offer additional insight. The table below compares total taxable sales for selected purchase categories for the March 2019 through December 2019 time horizon with March 2020 through December 2020. Hotels and Motels (-43.3 percent) and Restaurants and Bars (-17.5 percent) have experienced significant reductions in business activity, March 2020 through December 2020, compared to the same nine month time horizon in 2019. Total retail activity has increased 5.9 percent compared to the same ten months in 2019, but the distribution of 2020’s retail activity by type of store will be very different. Grocery and home improvement stores and online retail will all account for a greater proportion of total retail activity in 2020 compared to 2019. Contracting is up 18.8 percent. Total taxable sales in Arizona are up 6.8 percent for the ten-month comparison.
| Purchase Category | March 2019 – December 2019 | March 2020 – December 2020 | Percent Change |
| Utilities | $8,507,247,362 | $9,006,050,103 | +5.9% |
| Restaurants and Bars | $13,178,338,941 | $10,876,650,805 | -17.5% |
| Hotels and Motels | $3,058,425,101 | $1,732,622,452 | -43.3% |
| Retail | $60,859,974,950 | $64,479,251,256 | +5.9% |
| Contracting | $12,413,464,904 | $14,744,206,189 | +18.8% |
| Total Taxable Sales | $113,052,708,209 | $120,699,155,497 | +6.8% |
The table below compares the processing of total taxable sales for selected purchase categories in FY2020 with FY2021. Hotels and Motels (-3.2 percent) is the only purchase category shown to have lower taxable sales in FY2021 than FY2020. Total taxable sales processed in FY2021 is up 15.8 percent compared to FY2020.
| Purchase Category | FY2020 | FY2021 | Percent Change |
| Utilities | $490,748,121 | $538,333,725 | +9.7% |
| Restaurants and Bars | $723,584,979 | $762,441,281 | +5.4% |
| Hotels and Motels | $173,851,603 | $168,216,524 | -3.2% |
| Retail (excludes Remote Retail) | $3,735,621,144 | $4,318,732,713 | +15.6% |
| Contracting | $790,778,709 | $898,803,008 | +13.7% |
| Total Taxable Sales | $6,917,728,265 | $8,009,268,346 | +15.8% |