Western Blue Chip Current Update
April 16, 2025
The states included in the Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast are Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Texas, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.
STATE GDP AND JOB GROWTH UPDATE: 2024
The latest revised state growth figures for 2024 provide an updated perspective on the economic performance of the Western states (see table).
The recent revisions from the U. S Bureau of Economic Analysis show U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 2.8% in 2024. Among the Western states, six states grew as fast or faster than the nation and six grew more slowly. Utah led all states in GDP gains, recording a solid 4.5% growth rate for the year. Other Western states ranked in the top ten included Idaho (3rd with 3.9% growth), Washington (7th with 3.7% growth), Texas (9th with 3.6% growth) and California (10th with a rounded up 3.6% growth). Two Western states (Oregon 42nd and Wyoming 46th) were in the bottom ten nationally.
Western States GDP and Employment Growth in 2024
| State | GDP Growth 2024 | Job Growth 2024 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percent Change | Rank | Percent Change | Rank | |
| Arizona | 2.7% | 22 | 1.3% | 16 |
| California | 3.6% | 10 | 0.7% | 39 |
| Colorado | 1.9% | 39 | 1.1% | 22 |
| Idaho | 3.9% | 3 | 1.7% | 7 |
| Montana | 2.0% | 38 | 1.2% | 19 |
| Nevada | 2.8% | 20 | 1.9% | 4 |
| New Mexico | 2.2% | 34 | 1.5% | 11 |
| Oregon | 1.2% | 42 | 0.3% | 48 |
| Texas | 3.6% | 9 | 1.5% | 10 |
| Utah | 4.5% | 1 | 1.3% | 13 |
| Washington | 3.7% | 7 | 1.2% | 20 |
| Wyoming | 0.8% | 46 | 1.0% | 31 |
| United States | 2.8% | 1.3% | ||
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Job Growth in the Western states was less dynamic in 2024 than in recent pre-Covid years. For example, in 2019, before the Covid impact of 2020, Western states accounted for the first 6 of the top ten states ranked by percent change in job growth (in order: Arizona, Idaho, Nevada, Utah, Texas, and Colorado). But in 2024, only Nevada (4th), Idaho (7th) and Texas (10th) ranked among the top ten fastest growing states ranked by employment percentage change. Furthermore, only these three states plus New Mexico grew faster than the national pace of 1.3%.
Arizona had placed among the top ten states for percentage gains in employment in every year from 2016 – 2023, and the Grand Canyon State was first-ranked in 2019. The recent revised employment growth for Arizona in 2024 placed the state at 16th, with gains at the national average of 1.3%.
Similarly, Texas ranked 10th in 2024 after ranking 2nd in 2022 (behind Nevada) and 3rd in 2023. Oregon slipped to 48th in the job growth rankings in 2024, down from 27th in 2023. Oregon and California were the slowest growing Western states in 2024. Their nonfarm employment increased by 0.3% and 0.7%, respectively.
SPOTLIGHT ON TEXAS
“There is substantial uncertainty in the outlook at present. Texas is the largest state in the nation in terms of global trade which, combined with highly integrated production processes with Mexico, makes the state highly vulnerable to tariffs. Approximately 9% of its workforce is undocumented, including large portions of the agricultural, construction, and hospitality sectors, which creates additional vulnerability to current potential policies. The underlying short-term parameters of the state are solid, but if current policy pronouncements are sustained for an extended period, they will have material negative effects and result in lower overall performance.”
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Ray Perryman, President and CEO, The Perryman Group
“The broad tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration could have serious negative effects on Texas because of the state’s strong ties to the global economy, especially Mexico and Canada. Texas’ oil and gas industry could also be restrained to the extent other countries levy reciprocal tariffs on U.S. energy exports.”
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Bud Weinstein, Emeritus Professor of Applied Economics, University of North Texas