Western Blue Chip Current Update

January 19, 2024

The states included in the Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast are Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Texas, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.

 

POPULATION GROWTH SLOWED IN MOST WESTERN STATES IN 2023

 

The December  U. S. Census Bureau release of Vintage 2023 population estimates brought some surprises for economy-watchers in the Western region. At the national level, the annual percentage rate of growth increased from 0.4% in 2022 to 0.5% in 2023.   But Population growth rates slowed for most Western states as estimates of domestic migration declined.

Table 1:  Population Change in Western States

State Annual % Change Annual Numeric Change in Population
  2022 2023 2022 2023 Difference
Arizona 1.3% 0.9% 93,197 65,660 -27,537
California -0.3% -0.2% -104,444 -75,423 29,021
Colorado 0.5% 0.6% 29,443 36,571 7,128
Idaho 1.8% 1.3% 34,459 25,730 -8,729
Montana 1.5% 0.9% 16,512 9,934 -6,578
Nevada 1.0% 0.5% 30,789 16,755 -14,034
New Mexico -0.2% 0.0% -3,474 895 4,369
Oregon -0.4% -0.1% -17,086 -6,021 11,065
Texas 1.6% 1.6% 468,562 473,453 4,891
Utah 1.3% 1.1% 41,952 36,498 -5,454
Washington 0.6% 0.4% 43,044 28,043 -14,641
Wyoming 0.4% 0.4% 2,081 2,428 347
United States 0.4% 0.5% 1,222,434 1,643,484 421,050

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, December 2023

 

Colorado’s population growth rate rose from 0.5% in 2022 to 0.6% in 2023, paralleling the national increase (Table 1).  Percentage growth rates in Texas and Wyoming remained stable in 2023, and the annual numeric growth was up in both states.  Oregon and California lost population in 2023 at a slower pace than 2022, while New Mexico went from absolute population loss in 2022 to a modest positive gain of less than 1,000 new residents in 2023.

The biggest dip in population numeric change in 2023 compared to 2022 was in Arizona.  Although population continued to grow in 2023, the estimated increase in new residents was down by 27,537 compared to the prior year.   Except for the pandemic year 2020, the Arizona 2023 population gain of 65,660 was the smallest since 2015.

Population gains were also smaller in 2023 for Washington, Nevada, Idaho, Montana and Utah. The percentage rate of increase in 2023 was down 0.6 percentage points for Montana and down 0.5 percentage points for both Idaho and Nevada.

 

Growth Components

The components of state population changes include natural increase (births minus deaths), net domestic migration, and net international migration.  State to state domestic migration does not change national population, but the reduction in movement of 294,065 affected state growth.  Estimated domestic migration was smaller in 2023 compared to 2022 in most Western states, and continued negative in California, Oregon, Washington, and New Mexico (Table 2).  Domestic migration in Nevada was lower by 11,884 (58%) and in Arizona by 33,619 (48%).

 

Table 2:  Net Domestic Migration Change in Western States

State Annual Numeric Change in Net Domestic Migration
  2022 2023 Difference
Arizona 69,798 36,179 -33,619
California -332,785 -338,371 -5,586
Colorado 6,772 7,236 464
Idaho 28,586 15,389 -13,197
Montana 15,837 9,485 -6,352
Nevada 20,526 8,642 -11,884
New Mexico -4,496 -1,088 3,408
Oregon -17,575 -6,051 11,524
Texas 224,896 186,767 -38,129
Utah 13,803 1,338 -12,465
Washington -4,692 -15,276 -10,584
Wyoming 2,475 2,016 -459
United States 1,193,546 899,481 -294,065

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, December 2023

 

Net international migration to the U.S. was estimated as 1,138,989 for 2023 (Table 3).  The estimate exceeded 1 million persons for the first time since 2015.  Estimated net international migration in the Western states increased by 370,093, accounting for one third of the national total. California received 150,982 international migrants and Texas had 128,534, making up one quarter of the U.S. total.  The increases in annual international migration were largest in California (24,465) and Texas (11,227).  International migration remained positive but was smaller in 2023 in several Western states (Arizona, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon and Washington).

 

Table 3:  Net International Migration Change in Western States

State Annual Numeric Change in Net International Migration
  2022 2023 Difference
Arizona 22,296 21,635 -661
California 126,517 150,982 24,465
Colorado 10,413 11,931 1,518
Idaho 1,779 4,664 2,885
Montana 1,793 609 -1,184
Nevada 10,179 4,266 -5,913
New Mexico 5,839 3,642 -2,197
Oregon 7,234 4,304 -2,930
Texas 117,197 128,534 11,337
Utah 5,462 10,285 4,823
Washington 37,322 28,919 -8,403
Wyoming 364 322 -42
United States 999,267 1,138,989 139,722

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, December 2023

 

The methodology of estimating net domestic migration relies on various sources, including IRS and Medicare data.   Details on the methodology of population and population component estimation are available in the U. S. Census Bureau publication Methodology for the United States Population Estimates: Vintage 2023 (Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico – April 1-2020 to July 1, 2023).