Western Blue Chip Current Update
July 28, 2026
The states included in the Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast are Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Texas, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.
JOB GROWTH UPDATE AND OUTLOOK AT MID-YEAR
Nationally, job growth slowed from 0.5 percent in 2025 to 0.2 percent at mid year 2026, and economy-watchers expect hiring to remain slow through the remainder of the year. Within the Western region, small percentage losses and unspectacular small percentage gains in the pace of job creation have nonetheless resulted in notable changes in job growth rankings between 2025 and mid year 2026.
WESTERN STATES JOB GROWTH
2026 Job Growth Forecast
| State | 2025 Job Growth | 2026 Mid-Year Job Growth | 2026 Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Percent Change | Rank | Percent Change | ||
| Arizona | 32 | 0.1 | 28 | 0.1 | 0.9 |
| California | 25 | 0.3 | 7 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Colorado | 44 | -0.3 | 31 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Idaho | 1 | 1.5 | 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Montana | 35 | 0.1 | 45 | -0.5 | -1.0 |
| Nevada | 4 | 1.2 | 1 | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| New Mexico | 22 | 0.4 | 16 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Oregon | 47 | -0.5 | 49 | -1.3 | -1.0 |
| Texas | 6 | 1.1 | 6 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Utah | 3 | 1.3 | 2 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Washington | 15 | 0.5 | 26 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Wyoming | 39 | -0.1 | 12 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| USA | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | ||
Notes: Nonfarm job growth for 2025 and mid-year 2026 from U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Ranking from Job Growth USA, Seidman Research Institute, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University. Mid-year job growth is calculated as year-to-date January- June 2026 vs. January-June 2025. 2026 job growth forecasts as posted in Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast, July 2026. Rankings based on 3 decimal point comparison.
During the first half of 2026, Nevada became the national job-growth leader and the Western region’s strongest performer, rising from 1.2 percent job growth in 2025 to 2.2 percent at mid year 2026. Utah ranked second in the nation and the West at mid year with 0.8 percent growth.
Idaho, which led the nation in the rate of job creation in 2025 with 1.5 percent growth, eased to 0.8 percent at mid year 2026, slipping to fifth place. Texas held steady in the top tier, ranking sixth in both periods with growth of 1.1 percent in 2025 and 0.8 percent at mid year. California posted one of the most significant improvements, rising from 25th in 2025 to seventh at mid year 2026 as job gains strengthened somewhat to 0.6 percent.
Several states experienced declines in the pace of new jobs and slipped in the rankings. Oregon fell sharply from 47th in 2025 to 49th at mid year 2026, with job growth dropping from –0.5 percent to –1.3 percent. Montana also weakened, dipping from 35th to 45th as mid year job growth turned negative. Washington slowed from 0.5 percent in 2025 to 0.1 percent at mid year, moving from 15th to 26th in the national rankings. Colorado showed modest improvement, moving from –0.3 percent in 2025 to flat growth at mid year 2026, rising from 44th to 31st. Wyoming posted one of the strongest rebounds, improving from –0.1 percent in 2025 to 0.4 percent at mid year and climbing from 39th to 12th.
Western state forecasters expect Nevada, Utah, Texas, Idaho, and Wyoming to maintain employment growth at a pace above the national average for the remainder of 2026, while Montana and Oregon are likely to continue underperforming. Several states may see forecast revisions as the year progresses. Nevada’s mid year growth already exceeds expectations, suggesting analysts may raise their outlook. California’s mid year pace is also stronger than its current forecast, indicating potential upward adjustments. In contrast, Idaho’s mid year figure falls short of its projected growth, and Oregon’s decline is deeper than anticipated, suggesting forecasters may turn more cautious. Overall, the Western region continues to anchor several of the nation’s strongest job growth states even as broader national trends point to continued slower hiring in 2026.